Ihe nlereanya nke ihu igwe


obere ụdị nke	scientific model
nwere ojiji	scientific modeling

. ^[1]ọnụọgụ ihu igwe ọnụọgụgụ na-eji ụzọ ọnụọgụ iji mee ka ndị nke ndị ọkwọ ụgbọ ala dị mkpa nke ihu igwe, ikuku ihu igwe, ụdị oke osimiri, elu ala na ice . A na-eji ha eme ihe dị iche iche site n'ịmụ format nke usoro ihu igwe ruo n'ichepụta ihu igwe n'amaokwu. Ụdị ihu igwe igwe ịbụ ike ịbụ ụdị mma (ya bụ, ọ bụghị ọnụọgụ) yana ihe, na-achọta nke ọma, nke ihe ga-ekwe omume omume.

Ụdị ihu igwe dị iche iche na- ndị ike na-abata site na ụfọdụ dị ka ebili mmiri electromagnetic radieshon, nke a na-ahụ anya na nke dị iche (nso) infrared, yana ogologo ogologo ebili mmiri (nke dị anya) infrared electromagnetic. Enweghị ahaghị nhata na-ebute ụkpụrụ na .

Ụdị ọnụọgụ dị iche iche na ụdị anya. ihe atụ, ụdị ọkụ dị mfe na- misalin na-ele ụwa anya dị ka otu ebe na nkezi ike na-apụ. Enwere ike ịgbasa nke a n'ụzọ kwụpụta (ụdị radiative-convective) na/ma ọ bụ kwụpụta. Ọnọdụ ikuku ọnụ – oke osimiri – oke osimiri ice ụdị ihu igwe zuru ụwa ọnụ na-edozi nha anya zuru oke maka mbufe oke na ike yana egbochi na- Kamara ndị. brandi na nke ahụ, ụdị ndị ọzọ nwere ike ijikọ ọnụ, dị ka iji ala mee ihe, na-ama Sistemụ Models, na-enye ndị na-egbochi ọgwụ ndị dị n'etiti ihu igwe na gburugburu ebe obibi .

Ụdị igbe bụ ịdị mfe nke usoro anya anya, na-adị ha na igbe (ma ọ bụ reservoirs ) akwụkwọ site na fluxes. A na-eche na a ga-agwakọta igbe ndị ahụ n'otu n'otu. N'ime igbe, nke ụdị kemịkal ọ elebe bụ otu. Otú ọ dị, ụdịra nke ụdị dị n'ime igbe e nyere nwere ike ekirigasị iche dị ka ọrụ nke oge n'ihi ihe aka na (ma ọ bụ ọnwụ site na) igbe ma ọ bụ n'ihi , oriri ma ọ bụ ire nke ụdị a n'ime igbe ahụ</link>^{[ a chọrọ nkọwa ]}

Mfe igbe ụdị, ie igbe nlereanya na a obere ọnụ ọgụgụ nke igbe onye Njirimara (eg ha olu) adịghị agbanwe na oge, na-emekarị bara uru na-enweta analytical formulas na-akọwa na ike na otu ebe-ala ọtụtụ nke a ụdị. A na-edozi ụdị igbe dị mgbagwoju anya site na iji usoro ọnụọgụ. </link>^{[ a chọrọ nkọwa ]}

A na-eji ụdị igbe eme ihe n'ọtụtụ ebe iji usoro gburugburu ebe obibi ma ọ bụ gburugburu ebe obibi yana n'ihe gbasara mgbasa nke oke osimiri na ụgbọ carbon . [1] Ha bụ ihe atụ nke ụdị ụlọ ọtụtụ.

Ụdị ihe efu na-ewere ụwa dị ka ebe dị na mbara igwe, nke yiri ndị na-acha agha nke Voyager 1 na-ele ma ọ bụ echiche onye na-egosi mbara igwe na-ele ihe ndị dị anya anya. Echiche a na- oke ebe oke oke ka bara uru na iwu nke physics dị na nnukwu ejiji na ihe ndị ama achọpụta, ma ọ bụ n'ụzọ dabara adaba ma ọ bụrụ na amaara ụfọdụ ihe ndị bụ isi nke ihe ahụ. nkọwa, ndị na-egosi mbara igwe mara na ọtụtụ mbara ala ala ndị dị n'usoro mbara igwe nke anyị na- ree ụdị elu elu siri ike/mmiri nke ikuku ikuku gbara gburugburu. Ngwa bara uru nke iwu nke nchekwa ike na ihe ndị dị otú ahụ bụ iwu nke dị mfe Energy Balance Models (ma ọ bụ EBM's).

Ihe nlereanya dị mfe nke nha nhata radiative nke Ụwa bụ

(1-a)S\pi r^{2}=4\pi r^{2}\epsilon \sigma T^{4}

ebee

akụkụ aka ekpe na-anọchi anya ngụkọta ike mkpirisi mkpirisi na-abata (na Watts) sitere na Sun
akụkụ aka nri na-anọchi anya ike ogologo oge na-apụ apụ (na Watts) sitere na Ụwa, gbakọọ site na iwu Stefan–Boltzmann .

S bụ anyanwụ na-adịgide adịgide - ụzarị anyanwụ na-abata n'otu mpaghara - ihe dịka 1367 W·m ^-2
r bụ radius Ụwa—ihe dịka 6.371×10 ⁶ m
π bụ mgbakọ na mwepụ (3.141...)
$\sigma$ bụ Stefan-Boltzmann mgbe niile - ihe dịka 5.67 × 10 ^-8 J·K ^-4 · m ^-2 · s ^-1

(1-a)S=4\epsilon \sigma T^{4}

Akụkụ aka ekpe na-anọchi anya mgbagharị ike mkpirisi na-abata site na anyanwụ na W·m ^-2
akụkụ aka nri na-anọchi anya mgbagharị ike ogologo ebili mmiri na-apụ apụ site na Ụwa na W·m ^-2 .

$a$ bụ nkezi albedo nke ụwa, tụrụ ka ọ bụrụ 0.3. ^[2] ^[3]
$T$ bụ nkezi okpomọkụ n'elu ụwa, a tụrụ dịka ihe dịka 288 K dị ka afọ 2020 ^[4]
$\epsilon$ bụ mgbasa ozi dị irè nke elu ụwa jikọtara ọnụ na ikuku (gụnyere igwe ojii). Ọ bụ ọnụọgụ n'etiti 0 na 1 nke a gbakọrọ site na nha nha ka ọ bụrụ ihe dịka 0.61. Maka ọgwụgwọ efu, ọ dabara na ọnụ ahịa nkezi karịa akụkụ nlele niile.

Ihe nlereanya a dị nnọọ mfe bụ ezigbo ihe mmụta. Dịka ọmụmaatụ, ọ na-egosi mmetụta okpomọkụ maka mgbanwe na anyanwụ na-adịgide adịgide, Earth albedo, ma ọ bụ mmepụta ụwa dị irè. Mgbapụta dị irè na-egosikwa ike nke mmetụta griin haus nke ikuku, ebe ọ bụ nha nke ikuku ikuku na-agbaba na mbara igwe megide ndị na-esi n'elu pụta. ^[5]

Enwere ike iji nzacha gbakọọ na data dị. Mgbapụta elu ala dị n'ogo 0.96 ruo 0.99 ^[6] ^[7] (ma ewezuga ụfọdụ mpaghara ọzara nwere ike ịdị obere ka 0.7). Otú ọ dị, ígwé ojii, nke na-ekpuchi ihe dị ka ọkara nke elu mbara ala, na-enwe nkezi ikuku ikuku dị ihe dị ka 0.5 (nke a ghaghị ibelata site na ike nke anọ nke oke igwe ojii zuru oke na nkezi okpomọkụ zuru oke n'elu ala) yana nkezi okpomọkụ igwe ojii. ihe dịka 258 K (-15 Celsius C; 5 °F) . N'ịtụba ihe ndị a niile n'ụzọ ziri ezi na-ebute ikuku ikuku dị irè nke ihe dịka 0.64 (nkezi okpomọkụ ụwa 285 K (12 Celsius C; 53 °F) ). </link>^{[ a chọrọ nkọwa ]}

. ^[8]Ejikwa akwa ikuku ikuku kewapụrụ arụ ọrụ site na elu arụkwa ụdị ọkụ. Nke ekwe mfe n'ime ihe ndị a bụ ihe atụ efu, otu oyi akwa, [1] nke elele ike ịgbatị ngwa gaa na ọnụ ike ikuku na- ike ike. Ihe e ji mara elu na oyi akwa ikuku bụ nke ọ ALA nwere oke oke yana uru ego, mana akara oke. Itinye n'ihe nhata radiative (ya bụ ichekwa ike) n'ọhụụ dị n'ọkwa na- usoro nha anya ọnụ nke ngwaọrụ idozi.

Nlereanya efu nke dị n'elu, na-eji anyanwụ na-adịgide adịgide ma nyekwa nkezi okpomọkụ ụwa, na-ekpebi ịdị irè nke ikuku nke ogologo ebili mmiri nke na-ebuba na mbara igwe. Enwere ike nụchaa nke a na vetikal ka ọ bụrụ otu akụkụ radiative-convective model, nke na-atụle usoro abụọ nke njem ike: ^[9]

mbufe radieshọn na-agbago ma na-agbada site na ọkwa ikuku nke na-amịkọrọ ma na-ebunye radieshon infrared.
ebuga elu nke okpomọkụ site na convection (karịsịa dị mkpa na troposphere dị ala).

.Ụdị radiative-convective nwere uru ụfọdụ ụdị dị mfe: ha nwere ike ike dị iche iche nke ikuku grin haus na iche dị irẹ na ya mere nhọrọ dị elu. Mana muhimre paramita dị mkpa iji ikuku ikuku na albedo wee lebara ihe ndị na-akpali ume gbasara ụwa.</link>^{[ a chọrọ nkọwa ]}

Mmetụta nzaghachi ice-albedo na mmetụta zuru ụwa ọnụ n'ụdị ihu igwe nwere otu akụkụ na-egbuke egbuke. ^[10] ^[11] ^[12]

Ụdị akụkụ dị elu

Enwere ike ịgbasa ihe atụ efu ka ọ tụlere ike a na-ebufe na mbara ikuku. Ụdị ihe nlereanya a nwere ike bụrụ nke ọma na mpaghara mpaghara . Ihe nlereanya a nwere uru nke ikwe ka ịdabere n'echiche nke albedo mpaghara na emissivity na okpomọkụ - enwere ike ikwe ka ogwe osisi dị jụụ na equator na-ekpo ọkụ - ma enweghị ezi ihe na-eme ka ọ pụta ìhè na a ghaghị ịkọwapụta ụgbọ njem ndị kwụ ọtọ. ^[13]

EMCs (Ụdị sistemụ ụwa nke mgbagwoju anya etiti)

Dabere n'ụdị ajụjụ ndị a jụrụ na ihe ọ̀tụ̀tụ̀ oge dị mkpa, e nwere, n'otu oke, echiche, ụdị ndị na-emepụta ihe, na, n'akụkụ nke ọzọ, ụdị mgbasa ozi izugbe na-arụ ọrụ n'ogo kachasị elu na ogologo oge enwere ike ugbu a. Ụdị nke mgbagwoju anya dị n'etiti na-edozi ọdịiche ahụ. Otu ihe atụ bụ ụdị Climber-3. Igwe ikuku ya bụ ihe atụ 2.5 akụkụ ọnụ ọgụgụ na-agbanwe agbanwe na mkpebi 7.5 ° × 22.5 ° na oge nzọụkwụ nke ọkara ụbọchị; oké osimiri bụ MOM-3 ( Modular Ocean Model ) na 3.75 ° × 3.75 ° grid na 24 vetikal larịị. ^[14]

GCM (ụdị ihu igwe ụwa ma ọ bụ ụdị mgbasa ozi n'ozuzu)

Model okirikiri izugbe (GCMs) na-ewepụ nha nha maka mmegharị mmiri na nnyefe ike wee jikọta ndị a ka oge na-aga. N'adịghị ka ụdị dị mfe, GCM na-ekewa ikuku na/ma ọ bụ oke osimiri n'ime grids nke "sel" pụrụ iche, nke na-anọchite anya nkeji mgbakọ. N'adịghị ka ụdị dị mfe nke na-eme ka a na-eche n'echiche na-agwakọta, usoro n'ime cell-dị ka convection-nke na-eme na akpịrịkpa dị obere na-edozi ozugbo na-edozi na ọkwa cell, ebe ọrụ ndị ọzọ na-achịkwa interface n'etiti sel.

Igwe ikuku GCM (AGCMs) na-e ikuku ikuku ma na-ebute nhọrọ dị n'elu oké osimiri dị ka ọnọdụ oke. ikuku ikuku-oké osimiri GCMs (AOGCMs, eg HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climat) [1] ụdị abụọ ahụ. Ụdị ihu igwe mbụ nke mgbasa ozi izugbe nke ụzọ ma ụzọ oke osimiri na nke ikuku ka emepụtara na-achọ awụ 1960 na NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [2] AOGCM na-Ịnya anya dịke anya na ụdị ihu igwe na ọtụtụ usoro dị ka o kwere mee. ụkwụ, ha ka nọ na ike na ejighị n'aka ka dị. Enwere ike ijikọ ha na ụdị usoro ndị ọzọ, dị ka mkpuchi carbon, ka ire nzaghachi ka mma. A na-akpọ ụdị usoro ọtụtụ ihe eji ọnụ ọnụ dị otú ahụ mgbe ụfọdụ dị ka "usoro ụwa" ma ọ bụ "Ihu igwe ụwa."

Ọrụ meteorological nke mba. Ọtụtụ ọrụ ihu igwe nke mba nwere ngalaba climatology .
Ụlọ akwụkwọ mahadum. Ngalaba ndị dị mkpa gụnyere sayensị ikuku, meteorology, climatology, na ọdịdị ala.
Ụlọ nyocha nyocha nke mba na nke mba ụwa. Ihe atụ gụnyere National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, na Boulder, Colorado, US), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL, na Princeton, New Jersey, US), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Hadley Center maka amụma ihu igwe na nyocha (GFDL ). na Exeter, UK), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology na Hamburg, Germany, ma ọ bụ Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), France, ịkpọ aha ma ole na ole.

Akuko kansụl nyocha mba US nke 2012 tụlere ka nnukwu ụlọ ọrụ ihe nlegharị anya ihu igwe dị iche iche nke US nwere ike isi malite ka ọ bụrụ otu. ^[15] Enwere ike nweta arụmọrụ site n'ịmepụta akụrụngwa ngwanrọ nkịtị nke ndị nyocha ihu igwe nke US niile na-ekekọrịta, yana ịme ọgbakọ ihe ngosi ihu igwe kwa afọ, ka akụkọ ahụ chọpụtara. ^[16]

Ntugharị ikuku
Ụdị mgbasa ozi izugbe
Ụdị njem ụgbọ mmiri
Ntụle Radiation ikuku (ARM) (na US)
Mgbanwe data ihu igwe
Climateprediction.net
GFDL CM2. X
Gaa-ESSP
Amụma ihu igwe ọnụọgụgụ
Ụdị ikuku kwụ ọtọ
Ụdị amụma amụma cyclone okpomọkụ
Nyocha na nkwado nke ụdị ịme anwansị kọmputa
CICE oké osimiri ice nlereanya

Dapper/Dchart — nkata na budata data ụdịdị nke akụkọ nyocha nke anọ (AR4) nke otu gọọmentị etiti na mgbanwe ihu igwe zoro aka na ya . (Ọ dịghịzi adị)
NCAR/UCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM)
Mee ya onwe gị amụma ihu igwe
Nnyocha mbụ GCM mepụtara site na NASA/GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
Original NASA/GISS ụdị ihu igwe zuru ụwa ọnụ (GCM) nwere interface enyi na enyi maka PC na Mac
Ozi ụdị CCCma na interface iji weghachite data nlereanya
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2 ozi ụdị ihu igwe zuru ụwa ọnụ na faịlụ data mmepụta ihe nlereanya
AGCM akpọkọtara nke ọma dabere na GFDL CM2
Ihe nlere nke ikuku ikuku dị mma (MiMA) : dabere na GFDL CM2. Mgbagwoju anya n'etiti ụdị akọrọ na GCM zuru oke
Ụdị ihu igwe nke Mahadum Victoria Global, n'efu maka nbudata. Onye na-eme nchọpụta bụ onye nyere aka na akụkọ IPCC gbasara mgbanwe ihu igwe .
vimeo.com/user12523377/videos Nlegharị anya nke ụdị ihu igwe nke ETH Zurich
Archived Model Climate Empirical </link>

Ntụaka

↑ IPCC (2014). "AR5 Synthesis Report - Climate Change 2014. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change".
↑ Goode (2001). "Earthshine Observations of the Earth's Reflectance". Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 (9): 1671–4. DOI:10.1029/2000GL012580.
↑ Scientists Watch Dark Side of the Moon to Monitor Earth's Climate. American Geophysical Union (17 April 2001). Archived from the original on 27 February 2009. Retrieved on 2 November 2023.
↑ Climate Change: Global Temperature. NOAA. Retrieved on 6 July 2023.
↑ Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System. NASA (2013). Archived from the original on 18 February 2013.
↑ Seawater Samples - Emissivities. ucsb.edu.
↑ (15 June 2006) "An Improved Land Surface Emissivity Parameter for Land Surface Models Using Global Remote Sensing Observations". J. Climate 19 (12): 2867–81. DOI:10.1175/JCLI3720.1.
↑ ACS Climate Science Toolkit - Atmospheric Warming - A Multi-Layer Atmosphere Model. American Chemical Society. Archived from the original on 30 November 2022. Retrieved on 2 October 2022.
↑ Manabe (1 May 1967). "Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 24 (3): 241–259. DOI:<0241:TEOTAW>2.0.CO;2 10.1175/1520-0469(1967)024<0241:TEOTAW>2.0.CO;2.
↑ Pubs.GISS: Wang and Stone 1980: Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional.... nasa.gov. Archived from the original on 2012-07-30.
↑ Wang (1980). "Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model". J. Atmos. Sci. 37 (3): 545–52. DOI:<0545:EOIAFO>2.0.CO;2 10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<0545:EOIAFO>2.0.CO;2.
↑ Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. grida.no. Archived from the original on 25 March 2003.
↑ Energy Balance Models. shodor.org.
↑ emics1. pik-potsdam.de.
↑ U.S. National Research Council Report, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling. Archived from the original on 3 October 2012. Retrieved on 18 January 2021.
↑ U.S. National Research Council Report-in-Brief, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling. Archived from the original on 18 October 2012. Retrieved on 3 October 2012.

Njikọ mpụga

Nlereanya Intercomparison Model jikọtara ọnụ
Weebụsaịtị 101 Climate Modeling site na US National Research Council - Saịtị a bụ mmalite maka ka ụdị ihu igwe si arụ ọrụ. Ozi a gbadoro ụkwụ na ndị ọkachamara, mkpesa nkwenye sitere na Board US National Research Council on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. Nke kacha ọhụrụ bụ A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Archived </link> .
Kedu ihe kpatara nsonaazụ sitere na ọgbọ na-esote ụdị ihu igwe dị mkpa CarbonBrief, Ozi ndị ọbịa nke Belcher, Boucher, Sutton, 21 Maachị 2019

[1] IPCC (2014). "AR5 Synthesis Report - Climate Change 2014. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change".

[2] Goode (2001). "Earthshine Observations of the Earth's Reflectance". Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 (9): 1671–4. DOI:10.1029/2000GL012580.

[3] Scientists Watch Dark Side of the Moon to Monitor Earth's Climate. American Geophysical Union (17 April 2001). Archived from the original on 27 February 2009. Retrieved on 2 November 2023.

[4] Climate Change: Global Temperature. NOAA. Retrieved on 6 July 2023.

[5] Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System. NASA (2013). Archived from the original on 18 February 2013.

[6] Seawater Samples - Emissivities. ucsb.edu.

[7] (15 June 2006) "An Improved Land Surface Emissivity Parameter for Land Surface Models Using Global Remote Sensing Observations". J. Climate 19 (12): 2867–81. DOI:10.1175/JCLI3720.1.

[8] ACS Climate Science Toolkit - Atmospheric Warming - A Multi-Layer Atmosphere Model. American Chemical Society. Archived from the original on 30 November 2022. Retrieved on 2 October 2022.

[9] Manabe (1 May 1967). "Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 24 (3): 241–259. DOI:<0241:TEOTAW>2.0.CO;2 10.1175/1520-0469(1967)024<0241:TEOTAW>2.0.CO;2.

[10] Pubs.GISS: Wang and Stone 1980: Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional.... nasa.gov. Archived from the original on 2012-07-30.

[11] Wang (1980). "Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model". J. Atmos. Sci. 37 (3): 545–52. DOI:<0545:EOIAFO>2.0.CO;2 10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<0545:EOIAFO>2.0.CO;2.

[12] Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. grida.no. Archived from the original on 25 March 2003.

[13] Energy Balance Models. shodor.org.

[14] s1. pik-potsdam.de.

[15] U.S. National Research Council Report, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling. Archived from the original on 3 October 2012. Retrieved on 18 January 2021.

[16] U.S. National Research Council Report-in-Brief, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling. Archived from the original on 18 October 2012. Retrieved on 3 October 2012.

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